With the world cup right around the corner, I thought that this would be the best time to drop some cricket on y'all. The Cup Chronicles will be a series that will talk mainly about India's important matches in the 2015 world cup, along with other cricket gyaan that I have gained from years of binge-watching this awesome sport. Today's entry will focus on team India's chances in the world cup based on their recent performances, along with a little bit about other teams and where they stand.
If experts of the cricketing world, especially the Indian ones, are to be believed, India are going into this world cup as favourites. I would like nothing better than to be proved wrong come the 15th of February, but as of now, this is definitely not true. Cricket analysis in the mainstream media is extremely myopic, as most analysts, even those who were champions of the sport when they played it, are generally not willing to get to the real problems faced by the Indian team, as it might hurt their pockets.
Team India's record in one-day cricket, just like its record in test cricket, has been abysmal outside the subcontinent in recent times. More specifically, its record in Australia and New Zealand, the hosts of the 2015 world cup, has been absolutely horrendous. It has failed to register a single win in its last eight matches in these two countries, and only one of these eight matches has been against the mighty Aussies, the other seven being against significantly weaker teams, England and New Zealand.
It may be argued that team India viewed the recently concluded tri-series, in which it did not win a single game, as a warm up series, and therefore, went in with the goal of working out some kinks rather than winning, but going back a year to India's humiliating, winless tour of lowly New Zealand, and three years back to the awful performance in the tri-series against Australia and Sri Lanka, one is bound to think that there are some serious flaws in that hypothesis.
The conditions in Australia and New Zealand are just not suited to team India's playing style. While team India can do quite well in one-day cricket in a place like England, where conditions naturally favour the bowlers so much that limited overs cricket has to be played on pitches that are very different from the ones used in test cricket, the same does not apply to Australia, where conditions are almost identical for all formats of the game.
India's weakness against bounce and pace is therefore, easily exploited by sides with good pace attacks in one-day matches, where they're forced to look for quick runs. Add to this the enormous grounds in Australia, where boundaries are more difficult to come by, and we have a team almost entirely dependent on its batting failing to get the above par scores it needs to stand a chance against quality batting line-ups.
There is also the matter of India's world cup squad, which looks quite weak on paper given the inability of a lot of its key players to do well away from home. Not selecting the in-form Murali Vijay could cost India dearly. A tired, and often toothless pace bowling attack, along with spinners who have failed miserably away from home, could lead to an early exit from the world cup for India. Well, as early as it can be in a format where 42 matches are played in the league stage, at the end of which all the major eight teams qualify for the quarter-finals.
If team India is to have a chance of defending the world cup, it needs to maximise the output from its very limited squad by making smart and progressive selections for the playing eleven. Captain Dhoni needs to be his innovative self and forget clichéd formulae that cricket "experts" often prescribe. He needs to understand that he has an extremely poor pace bowling attack that will bleed runs without giving him enough wickets, and he's better off going with economical medium pacers.
He needs to forget that Suresh Raina is a good middle order batsman in ODIs at home and look at his abysmal record overseas, and more importantly, his crippling fear of fast bowlers like Mitchell Johnson and Dale Steyn regardless of whether the match is taking place in Mumbai or Melbourne. He needs to realise that he, Dhoni, is not the batsman he once was and cannot blaze away the second he comes in to bat, and therefore needs to come up the order so that he allows himself some time to settle in for the long innings.
My pick for India's playing eleven, in batting order - Dhawan, R Sharma, Rahane, Kohli, Dhoni, Raina, Binny, Ashwin, A Patel, B Kumar, Shami. Jadeja's exclusion may raise eyebrows, but Axar Patel has outbowled him in recent times, and India already has a batting allrounder in Stuart Binny. Rahane batting at number three is also an unusual choice, but it will enable Kohli to come in a little later so that he can bat through to the end more often, as with the new rules the game has become more about the last 15 overs than the first 15.
India's run in the league stage has been made considerably easy due to the fact that they play arch-rivals Pakistan, whom they have never lost to in world cups, in Adelaide, where conditions are as close to home as they can be Down Under. There is also the fact that they have West Indies in their group, a team that, for all practical purposes, is no better than the minnows. I will pray that I don't have to eat my words when India plays them at Perth on the 6th of March.
India's real test will begin in the quarter-finals, where they will, in all likelihood, play perennial underdogs (and semi-finalists), New Zealand, in their own backyard. If they were to win that match, they would probably play Australia in the semi-final, or as they would like to call it, the final before the actual final, where they could face either Pakistan, Sri Lanka, or South Africa.
Australia and South Africa are going into this world cup as favourites with well rounded teams that have a good balance of stars and utility players. While South Africa, as always, need to learn how to deal with pressure come the knockout games, Australia also need to address a few issues that could be their undoing. Michael Clarke's insistence on playing in the world cup even though there isn't a place for him in the team, besides being very un-Australian, could cost them dearly if he gets injured in the middle of the tournament.
Sri Lanka and Pakistan are always in with an outside chance of winning these major tournaments, but since they're both the kind of teams that can beat, or lose to any team on any given day, I doubt anyone can predict how their performance is going to be. New Zealand are a team to watch out for, because even though they lack what it takes to go all the way, they have players who can be party poopers for other teams. England have no chance of winning, but their strong bowling attack has proven in the tri-series that they cannot be considered pushovers.
All in all, while this world cup will probably not be able to match the intensity of the last one, as there is nothing quite like a cricket world cup in the subcontinent, it promises to be an exciting tournament nonetheless because of the change in the rules, and because it will be the last for several modern day greats. I'm sure that the blue billion will continue to bleed blue and hope that India beats the odds to bring home the world cup again, and so will I. In the words of God, come, let us chase the dream again.
If experts of the cricketing world, especially the Indian ones, are to be believed, India are going into this world cup as favourites. I would like nothing better than to be proved wrong come the 15th of February, but as of now, this is definitely not true. Cricket analysis in the mainstream media is extremely myopic, as most analysts, even those who were champions of the sport when they played it, are generally not willing to get to the real problems faced by the Indian team, as it might hurt their pockets.
Team India's record in one-day cricket, just like its record in test cricket, has been abysmal outside the subcontinent in recent times. More specifically, its record in Australia and New Zealand, the hosts of the 2015 world cup, has been absolutely horrendous. It has failed to register a single win in its last eight matches in these two countries, and only one of these eight matches has been against the mighty Aussies, the other seven being against significantly weaker teams, England and New Zealand.
It may be argued that team India viewed the recently concluded tri-series, in which it did not win a single game, as a warm up series, and therefore, went in with the goal of working out some kinks rather than winning, but going back a year to India's humiliating, winless tour of lowly New Zealand, and three years back to the awful performance in the tri-series against Australia and Sri Lanka, one is bound to think that there are some serious flaws in that hypothesis.
The conditions in Australia and New Zealand are just not suited to team India's playing style. While team India can do quite well in one-day cricket in a place like England, where conditions naturally favour the bowlers so much that limited overs cricket has to be played on pitches that are very different from the ones used in test cricket, the same does not apply to Australia, where conditions are almost identical for all formats of the game.
India's weakness against bounce and pace is therefore, easily exploited by sides with good pace attacks in one-day matches, where they're forced to look for quick runs. Add to this the enormous grounds in Australia, where boundaries are more difficult to come by, and we have a team almost entirely dependent on its batting failing to get the above par scores it needs to stand a chance against quality batting line-ups.
There is also the matter of India's world cup squad, which looks quite weak on paper given the inability of a lot of its key players to do well away from home. Not selecting the in-form Murali Vijay could cost India dearly. A tired, and often toothless pace bowling attack, along with spinners who have failed miserably away from home, could lead to an early exit from the world cup for India. Well, as early as it can be in a format where 42 matches are played in the league stage, at the end of which all the major eight teams qualify for the quarter-finals.
If team India is to have a chance of defending the world cup, it needs to maximise the output from its very limited squad by making smart and progressive selections for the playing eleven. Captain Dhoni needs to be his innovative self and forget clichéd formulae that cricket "experts" often prescribe. He needs to understand that he has an extremely poor pace bowling attack that will bleed runs without giving him enough wickets, and he's better off going with economical medium pacers.
He needs to forget that Suresh Raina is a good middle order batsman in ODIs at home and look at his abysmal record overseas, and more importantly, his crippling fear of fast bowlers like Mitchell Johnson and Dale Steyn regardless of whether the match is taking place in Mumbai or Melbourne. He needs to realise that he, Dhoni, is not the batsman he once was and cannot blaze away the second he comes in to bat, and therefore needs to come up the order so that he allows himself some time to settle in for the long innings.
My pick for India's playing eleven, in batting order - Dhawan, R Sharma, Rahane, Kohli, Dhoni, Raina, Binny, Ashwin, A Patel, B Kumar, Shami. Jadeja's exclusion may raise eyebrows, but Axar Patel has outbowled him in recent times, and India already has a batting allrounder in Stuart Binny. Rahane batting at number three is also an unusual choice, but it will enable Kohli to come in a little later so that he can bat through to the end more often, as with the new rules the game has become more about the last 15 overs than the first 15.
India's run in the league stage has been made considerably easy due to the fact that they play arch-rivals Pakistan, whom they have never lost to in world cups, in Adelaide, where conditions are as close to home as they can be Down Under. There is also the fact that they have West Indies in their group, a team that, for all practical purposes, is no better than the minnows. I will pray that I don't have to eat my words when India plays them at Perth on the 6th of March.
India's real test will begin in the quarter-finals, where they will, in all likelihood, play perennial underdogs (and semi-finalists), New Zealand, in their own backyard. If they were to win that match, they would probably play Australia in the semi-final, or as they would like to call it, the final before the actual final, where they could face either Pakistan, Sri Lanka, or South Africa.
Australia and South Africa are going into this world cup as favourites with well rounded teams that have a good balance of stars and utility players. While South Africa, as always, need to learn how to deal with pressure come the knockout games, Australia also need to address a few issues that could be their undoing. Michael Clarke's insistence on playing in the world cup even though there isn't a place for him in the team, besides being very un-Australian, could cost them dearly if he gets injured in the middle of the tournament.
Sri Lanka and Pakistan are always in with an outside chance of winning these major tournaments, but since they're both the kind of teams that can beat, or lose to any team on any given day, I doubt anyone can predict how their performance is going to be. New Zealand are a team to watch out for, because even though they lack what it takes to go all the way, they have players who can be party poopers for other teams. England have no chance of winning, but their strong bowling attack has proven in the tri-series that they cannot be considered pushovers.
All in all, while this world cup will probably not be able to match the intensity of the last one, as there is nothing quite like a cricket world cup in the subcontinent, it promises to be an exciting tournament nonetheless because of the change in the rules, and because it will be the last for several modern day greats. I'm sure that the blue billion will continue to bleed blue and hope that India beats the odds to bring home the world cup again, and so will I. In the words of God, come, let us chase the dream again.
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